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Gail Model for 5 Year Risk of Breast Cancer (1999 paper)   RelativeRisk = AgeMenarche * NumBiops * AgeFLBNumRels * AtypHyper FiveYearRisk = RelativeRisk * BaselineAgeRace   Input:   Age Menarche Age at menarche >= 14 years old (1.00) 12-13 years old (1.10) < 12 years old (1.21) Num Biops Age at counseling < 50 years old: No biopsies (1.00) 1 biopsy (1.70) >= 2 biopsies (2.88)   Age at counseling >= 50 years old: No biopsies (1.00) 1 biopsy (1.27) >= 2 biopsies (1.62) _______________________________________ Age FLB Num Rels Age at 1st live birth < 20 yrs: No 1st degree relatives w/ Breast Ca (1.00) 1 1st degree relatives w/ Breast Ca (2.61) >= 2 1st degree relatives w/ Breast Ca (6.80)   Age at 1st live birth 20-24 yrs: No 1st degree relatives w/ Breast Ca (1.24) 1 1st degree relative w/ Breast Ca (2.68) >= 2 1st degree relatives w/ Breast Ca (5.78)   Age at 1st live birth 25-29 yrs or nullip: No 1st degree relatives w/ Breast Ca (1.55) 1 1st degree relative w/ Breast Ca (2.76) >= 2 1st degree relatives w/ Breast Ca (4.91)   Age at 1st live birth >= 30 yrs: No 1st degree relatives w/ Breast Ca (1.93) 1 1st degree relative w/ Breast Ca (2.83) >= 2 1st degree relatives w/ Breast Ca (4.17) _______________________________________ Atyp Hyper No biopsies (1.00) At least one biopsy and no atypical hyperplasia found in any biopsy specimen (0.93) No atypical hyperplasia found and hyperplasia status unknown for at least one biopsy specimen (1.00) Atypical hyperplasia found in at least one biopsy specimen (1.82) Baseline Age Race Patient Age -- Black Women 20-24 (0.014) 25-29 (0.050) 30-34 (0.120) 35-39 (0.224) 40-44 (0.310) 45-49 (0.355) 50-54 (0.416) 55-59 (0.511) 60-64 (0.562) 65-69 (0.586) 70-74 (0.646) 75-79 (0.713) 80-84 (0.659) Patient Age -- White Women 20-24 (0.012) 25-29 (0.049) 30-34 (0.134) 35-39 (0.278) 40-44 (0.450) 45-49 (0.584) 50-54 (0.703) 55-59 (0.859) 60-64 (1.018) 65-69 (1.116) 70-74 (1.157) 75-79 (1.140) 80-84 (1.006) _______________________________________ Results:   Relative Risk     Five Year Risk       Decimal Precision: 0 1 2 3           Notes Be sure to go through all of the pull-down choices--some select more than one risk factor that are linked (see below.) The Num Biops term refers to the number of prior breast biopsies performed. It is linked to the Age at Counseling. The Age FLB Num Rels term refers to the subject's age when she had her first live birth. It is linked to the number of her relatives that have been diagnosed with breats cancer. the Baseline Age Race term is the subject's age. It is linked to the subject's race.   Equation parameters such as Age Menarche have two or more discrete values that may be used in the calculation. The numbers in the parentheses, e.g. (1.00), represent the values that will be used.     Related Results            Pull down to select a related equation and transfer values in common Gail Model for 5 Year Risk of Breast Cancer in Black Women (2007)     [ Atyp_Hyper ] Gail Model for Predicting Individual Breast Cancer Risk (1989 Paper)     [ Age_Menarche ]       References Gail MH, Constantino JP, Bryant J, et. al. Weighing the Risks and Benefits of Tamoxifen Treatment for Preventing Breast Cancer. J. National Cancer Institute. 1999; V91, #21, pages 1829-1846. Costantino JP, Gail MH, Pee D, et. al. Validation studies for models projecting the risk of invasive and total breast cancer incidence. J Natl Cancer Inst. 1999 Sep 15;91(18):1541-8. MedCalc CrossRef: Gail Model (1989 paper) MedCalc CrossRef: Odds Ratio and Relative Risk MedCalc CrossRef: Breast Cancer Local Recurrence Risk     Legal Notices and Disclaimer   All information contained in and produced by the MedCalc 3000 system is provided for educational purposes only. This information should not be used for the diagnosis or treatment of any health problem or disease. THIS INFORMATION IS NOT INTENDED TO REPLACE CLINICAL JUDGMENT OR GUIDE INDIVIDUAL PATIENT CARE IN ANY MANNER. Click here for full notice and disclaimer.   MedCalc 3000 is Copyright © 1998-2009 Foundation Internet Services, LLC    [Build 239610 v9.1]